This past month has shown how truly prone California can be to natural disasters, and the state’s proclivity for attracting such events eclipses most of its contemporaries.
In a new study by DJC Law, California was noted as having the second-highest likelihood of a key natural disaster over the next several years, only trailing Texas in that regard. The study analyzed the frequency of wildfires, tornadoes and floods over specific time periods to calculate the probability of these events happening again on a major scale.
As evidenced by the recent Franklin, Palisades, Eaton and Sunset fires; California can be set ablaze in a hurry, leaving it no surprise that the state was ranked first in future wildfire probability at 13.89%. From 2010 through 2022, the state had 101,760 fires spring up, more than 10,000 more than Texas and nearly double the amount as third-place North Carolina.
After the January fires, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office offered explanations to the state’s constant risk, including highly seasonal rainfall, types of vegetation present, local weather patterns and topography. The analysis adds that “California’s largest and most destructive wildfires have occurred in recent decades,” due to reasons like increased development in fire-prone areas and unhealthy forestlands.
The state is also tied for 6th of the 50 states in the study for future major flood probability, sitting at 3.65%. Recent observers will remember the Winter of 2022 and 2023, with heavy rainfall caused by atmospheric rivers flooding regions up and down the state. Flooding during that rainy season caused at least 22 fatalities, 6,000 evacuations and at least 200,000 power outages.
Millions of Californians were under flood watches early this week, as rain is expected to continue in the Los Angeles area Wednesday. The first wave of rain, according to AccuWeather, began in the northern end of the state last week due to an atmospheric river, with some areas receiving almost a foot of rain.
The AccuWeather report adds that after the weather clears on Wednesday evening, another round of light rain and drizzle will come into Southern California Thursday night and Friday. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said that the surge of rain and moisture will help prevent new fires, but it could bring a dangerous risk of mudslides if it falls in burn scar areas.
According to Weather Underground, the Santa Monica Municipal Airport station has reported just 1.18 inches of precipitation in 2025 as of Monday. Santa Monica was similarly dry in 2024 until an early February storm brought nearly 7 inches of rainfall to the city in just two days.
The state ranked in the middle of the pack, 20th, for future tornado probability at just 0.58% chance of a major event. Though rare, tornado events have hit recently in Los Angeles County, including a high-end EF1 tornado that damaged buildings and vehicles in Montebello in March 2023. Two months later, two EF0 tornadoes touched down in Compton in an 11-minute span, damaging trees and roofs.
For more information on the DJC Law study, visitteamjustice.com.
