COVID-19 cases continue to increase across LA County, but Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer is not yet calling the upward momentum a sixth wave.
The primary reason LA County Department of Public Health (DPH) leaders are resisting labeling the uptick a “wave” is also a promising sign: There is so far no accompanying spike in hospitalizations and deaths associated with the increased case positivity.
“Because deaths are a lagging indicator, we are a little concerned that we might see an uptick in the upcoming weeks,” Ferrer described in response to a question during a DPH COVID-19 media briefing on Wednesday afternoon, May 4. But, later in the briefing, Ferrer said previous waves saw hospitalizations and deaths begin to spike within three weeks of case numbers increasing.
“All of our waves in the past, I … want to note, have been characterized not just by an increase in cases but also by an increase in hospitalizations a couple of weeks — two to three weeks — later, and then an increase sadly, in deaths,” Ferrer said. “So, we haven’t seen either of those and we’re way past the three-week mark.”
Unless those lagging indicators begin to catch up, the current trend does not fit into what Ferrer considers a wave.
“When I think about waves — similar to the waves we experienced in the past — we’ve had increases in all three of those metrics [cases, hospitalizations and deaths], and we only have an increase, right now, in our case numbers,” Ferrer continued. “I’m comfortable with whatever terminology you’d like to use to characterize the fact that we are seeing a sustained increase over time in the number of people that are infected.”
Ferrer, who was masked during the virtual presentation, said there was still time to get out ahead of the current uptick in cases, which increased 25 percent over the past week. On Wednesday, LA County reported an additional 2,484 cases of COVID-19.
“What we’ve been seeing now is this gradual increase, which is more tolerable and allows us to, particularly in high-risk settings, get in front of some of the transmission and introduce some measures that actually can help, we hope, slow down the spread,” Ferrer said. “It also allows individual people to make different decisions as they see this trajectory of increased cases.”
Some of those decisions could include opting to return to indoor masking in certain scenarios, moving gatherings outdoors or skipping social gatherings if you or someone you live with is at higher risk. Ferrer also said in periods of “medium concern,” workplaces could encourage physical distancing and “strongly recommend” indoor masking.
One factor that may affect the current trajectory of the pandemic is the emergence of additional Omicron sub-variants that, according to Ferrer, combine the transmissibility of omicron with some of the health risks of delta.
“Although they’re not common in the United States, we’re also monitoring two other emerging Omicron lineages: BA.4 and BA.5. In LA County to date, only one positive sequenced specimen has been identified as BA.4, and none have been identified as BA.5. However, these lineages may have a growth advantage over [the current most common variant] BA.2, and they’re believed to be contributing to a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases in South Africa,” Ferrer said. “BA.4 and BA.5 also have a mutation that was present in the delta variant, which may have been related to the increased severity of disease caused by delta. Thus, while we closely monitor research on these variants and sub lineages, residents and workers should take prudent precautions to avoid getting infected and transmitting COVID-19 to others, and those who are higher risk for severe COVID-19 illness should ask about therapeutics ahead of time, so they have a plan for what they’re going to do should they become ill.”
emily@smdp.com
