Like the rest of the Los Angeles area, Santa Monica has seen a dry period in the autumn months, with nothing in the way of measurable rainfall since a memorable downpour in late August. However, a storm currently brewing in the Pacific Northwest is set to pivot the precipitation trend.
The storm, monitored in the Gulf of Alaska on Monday, will continue to trek south with intentions of dropping into Southern California Wednesday. The National Weather Service (NWS) states that moisture will begin to move into the Los Angeles area on Wednesday, with increasing chances of rain throughout the day. By Wednesday evening, most areas in Los Angeles including Santa Monica can “expect to receive around 0.25 inches or less of rain,” the NWS states.
A stalling of the storm, something AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham coined a “slow eastward progression,” will keep rainfall lingering through the weekend. The NWS noted that there is “high confidence in good measurable rainfall” in the second half of the week, with a general 1-3 inch rainfall forecast for greater Los Angeles, though many areas will “be on the lower end” of that range. The AccuWeather forecast for Santa Monica specifically calls for around an inch of rain through Saturday.
While an inch of rain doesn’t appear significant on the surface, the precipitation is due for the area. In late August, Tropical Storm Hilary dropped a 36-hour rainfall total of 3.52 inches, observed at the NWS Santa Monica Municipal Airport station. Since that date, however, the station has not recorded any measurable precipitation, leaving Santa Monica dry for the past three months. The dry spell also stands throughout Los Angeles, as Downtown Los Angeles is seeking its first measurable rainfall since Sept. 30. The 0.05 inches of rain in the downtown area since Hilary’s arrival on Aug. 21 is only about 6% of the historical average in that timeframe.
In 2023, Santa Monica’s measurable rainfall total stands at 19.06 inches, with the majority coming in the January-March period, cresting with 7.85 inches of rain throughout March. The NWS report also mentioned that this week’s storm system “will tap a weak atmospheric river,” the culprit of the widespread rainfall in the Los Angeles area during those months.
Due to the winter and spring having hyperactivity in terms of rainfall, the dry spell throughout California did not impact drought conditions, which vanished in 2023. According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 98% of California was in at least “moderate drought” conditions at the start of the year, with 35% in the most concerning “extreme” and “exceptional” drought categories. As of Nov. 7, none of the state is under any of those conditions, with only 5.96% of the state considered “abnormally dry.”
The early-year precipitation also curbed wildfire activity in the state. According to CalFire, there have been just over 319,000 acres burned in 2023, which is the lowest acreage burned since the 2019 wildfire season. The AccuWeather forecast notes that this week’s rain influx “has the potential to effectively put a wrap on the wildfire season” across the state. Though not a wildfire, Los Angeles is still dealing with the aftermath of last week’s massive pallet fire that indefinitely shut down a portion of the 10 Freeway in the downtown area.