A longtime Pacific Palisades resident is raising concerns about what he sees as a slow and uneven post-fire recovery, sounding the alarm on a market he believes is being stifled by policy, cost and city inaction.
Jeremy Padawer, a 16-year Palisades resident Palisades resident and entrepreneur in the toy industry, lost his home in the January wildfire that destroyed thousands of residences across Los Angeles. Since then, he’s been tracking the pace of lot sales in his neighborhood and says the numbers paint a troubling picture.
“There’s a significant inventory buildup,” he says. “We’re listing lots faster than we’re selling them. If something doesn’t change soon, the Palisades is going to see a long and painful recovery.”
Padawer, who has turned the domain name pacificpalisades.com into a nonprofit advocacy platform for his neighbors, shared publicly sourced data comparing home lot activity in the Palisades to that in Altadena, another area devastated by the fires. The contrast, he says, is stark.
According to figures he compiled, the Palisades currently has over 200 active listings, with only 31 lots sold in the past 90 days. Altadena, by comparison, had more than 100 sales during the same period on just 81 active listings. “That means Altadena is moving inventory nearly nine times faster,” he says.
Padawer attributes this divide to affordability, development feasibility and what he sees as damaging city policy. “In Altadena, it’s still possible to rebuild and sell at a reasonable cost. Here, between high property taxes, the ULA tax and construction costs, the math just doesn’t work.”
The ULA tax, often referred to as the “mansion tax,” imposes a 4 to 5.5 percent charge on home sales over $5 million. Padawer says the tax applies to the gross sale price, regardless of whether the seller takes a loss and discourages redevelopment in high-value areas like the Palisades.
He’s also critical of what he describes as a “dwelling tax,” where the city assesses property taxes proportionally based on how much of the home has been rebuilt, even before it’s finished. “It’s like being taxed for a home you don’t yet live in,” he says. “If your house is 35 percent complete, you’re charged for 35 percent of the value. That’s before you've moved back in and while you're already paying interest and holding costs.”
In his view, these policies hit hardest for fixed-income homeowners, seniors and those who were uninsured or underinsured, residents he says are already stretched thin. “I’m fortunate,” he says. “But a lot of people in this community aren’t. If we don’t remove some of these barriers, the only people who will be able to return are the ones with deep pockets or outside investors.”
Padawer believes Pacific Palisades could see lot values drop as much as 40 percent from pre-fire prices if the trend continues. “We’re not seeing any meaningful relief or policy change. Meanwhile, holding costs keep rising and developers are staying away.”
He also expressed frustration with the city’s initial response to the fire. “This community pays over $600 million in property taxes each year,” he says. “But when it mattered most, we had one police car, no hydrants and empty reservoirs. We didn’t get the emergency response or preparedness that should come with that level of contribution.”
When asked who he hoped might respond to his concerns, Padawer says his faith in local leadership has eroded. “I don’t trust Mayor Bass or Governor Newsom to be honest with us or to act in time … That’s not a partisan statement. I’m independent. But this was mismanagement from top to bottom.”
Still, he insists he’s not anti-development. “I love this neighborhood. I’m not trying to bulldoze its character. But we need to make it viable to rebuild. Because if it isn’t, this won’t just be a slow recovery, it’ll be permanent displacement.”
Through pacificpalisades.com, Padawer now publishes weekly posts on tax policy, lot sales, rebuilding timelines and fire accountability. He’s become a voice for residents still trying to understand the path forward.
“It’s not about making money,” he says. “It’s about giving people the information they need to stay, or at least to make an informed decision if they can’t.”
While he remains committed to rebuilding his own home, Padawer worries that without significant shifts, many won’t have that option. “A lot of people still don’t have access to their own lots. And when they do, they’ll be met with walls of red tape, high costs and policy obstacles,” adding, “We owe it to the families who’ve lived here for generations to make sure they can come home.”
scott.snowden@smdp.com
